The founders of Bull Bear have written 8 books on macro issues in the economy and financial markets that have sold more than a million copies.  By doing so they have gained a unique expertise in macro analysis.  The macro issues have always been important to analyzing the markets. 

However, during and after the Covid Crisis something radically changed: macroeconomic conditions have now become the dominant force driving the markets.  Bull Bear was created to take advantage of this important and far-reaching change.

Bull Bear’s understanding of these important macro issues allowed us to accurately predict that interest rate hikes would not push the US into recession.  In the past, such rate hikes certainly would have precipitated a recession, but now, with massive Congressional stimulative borrowing driving the economy, we knew no recession would occur, and the stock market would rebound accordingly. 

In addition, our close analysis of the Fed’s monetary policy made it possible for us to understand that the post-Covid rise of inflation was the result of temporary disruptions of supply and demand, which would fade as those supply and demand factors balanced. 

Bull Bear Capital Management has developed the Bull Bear Macro Investment System™ which is based on these newly dominant macro issues.  The system focuses on the broader stock markets, rather than individual stocks, since individual stocks are still greatly affected by individual company attributes rather than macro issues.  It also uses other macro investment tools, such as commodities, including gold, in implementing our changing macro views.

In our focus on the broader markets, we have specifically structured the Bull Bear investment strategy to outperform the S&P 500 over the long term (Bull Bear Flagship Fund is up 56.5% in 2023 and up 57.8% YTD as of Nov. 30 2024), while most hedge funds struggle to even match, never mind beat, the gains of the overall market. 

However, we also know that the massive growth of US government debt (now $37 trillion), plus the massive future money printing that will be needed to support it, could eventually lead to significant future inflation, causing double-digit interest rates (despite the Fed’s efforts to keep interest rates down with more money printing).  Double-digit interest rates would clearly pose an enormous threat for all interest-rate-sensitive assets, including stocks, bonds, and real estate.

The Bull Bear Macro Investment System™ allows us to take exceptional advantage of massive government financial stimulus, while also watching for, if and when, these rate-sensitive markets start heading into trouble.  In that way we can also protect sophisticated investors from the future potential problems of ever-increasing government debt, as well as from intermediate Black Swan events that may threaten the market in the shorter term.